This project explores the causal relationship between economic shocks and political behaviour by leveraging firm-level and employee-level administrative data from France. Motivated by the VALPOP project and recent debates on the political consequences of globalization and structural transformation, it focuses on the effect of plant closures on the diffusion of populist narratives and voting patterns in affected localities.
The empirical strategy relies on a series of natural experiments based on unexpected plant shutdowns. These closures generate exogenous variation in labour market outcomes—such as layoffs, contract termination, wage losses, and re-employment trajectories—which can then be linked to political outcomes at the municipality or department level.
Specifically, the project combines:
- Firm-level administrative data (FICUS, BRN) to track closures and structural changes.
- Employee-level data (DADS, Déclarations Préalables à l’Embauche) to observe labour market dynamics, including employment contracts, terminations, and earnings.
- Electoral data to measure shifts in vote shares for populist parties and participation rates across multiple election cycles.
The research aims to contribute to the understanding of:
- How economic dislocation affects trust in political institutions and support for anti-establishment parties.
- Whether the effects of economic shocks are persistent or diminish over time.
- The extent to which social protection mechanisms (e.g., unemployment benefits, retraining programs) mediate the impact on political behaviour.
By focusing on France, a country with both detailed administrative data and a history of political volatility, this study provides robust empirical evidence on the economic underpinnings of populism in advanced democracies.
This work aligns with the goals of the VALPOP project by empirically assessing the drivers of populism and informing policies aimed at democratic resilience in the face of economic adversity.